Feirense 4–1 Farense: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Feirense

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Farense

André Rodrigues 90+4'

Samuel Teles 51'

Fábio Espinho 49' (pen), 18'

Cristian Ponde 36'

2/8/2022

Segunda Liga · Round 21Estádio Marcolino de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Feirense40%

×Draw29%

Farense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeirenseExpected goals in this matchFarense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.02

Feirense

1.21

Farense

1.02

Feirense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 76 away

1.31

creates per match

1.04

0.99

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Feirense

1.31

Farense

1.04

allows per match

Feirense

0.99

Farense

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par

Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Farense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Feirense or draw

69%

Feirense or Farense

71%

Draw or Farense

60%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+

17%

Farense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals

70%

Feirense 2+ goals

34%

Feirense 3+ goals

12%

Farense 1+ goals

64%

Farense 2+ goals

27%

Farense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)

57%

Farense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Farense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 1.31 + Farense defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Farense attack 1.04 + Feirense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Feirense scores more

40%

level

29%

Farense scores more

31%

Feirense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

32'

36'

46'

49'

Fábio EspinhoPenalty

51'

Samuel Teles

56'

Harramiz← Cristian Ponde

56'

Elves← Vasco Lopes

57'

Fabrício Isidoro← Mica

67'

André Rodrigues← Fábio Espinho

68'

Jardel← K. Vargas

68'

Pedro Henrique← Pedro Albino

77'

Fabrício Isidoro

79'

Henrique← Gut

82'

A. Shimaga← João Paulo

82'

Tiago Dias← Zé Ricardo

89'

João Oliveira

89'

Rafael Defendi

90+4'

André Rodrigues

Shots

Statistics

FeirenseFarense

Overview

8Total Shots4

5Corners3

13Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots4

5On Target1

3Off Target3

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1