Feirense 0–1 Chaves: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Feirense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chaves

Tiago Reis 36'

3/7/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 25Estádio Marcolino de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Feirense38%

×Draw28%

Chaves34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeirenseExpected goals in this matchChaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.14

Feirense

1.22

Chaves

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 78 away

1.31

creates per match

1.28

0.99

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Feirense

1.31

Chaves

1.28

allows per match

Feirense

0.99

Chaves

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par

Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Chaves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Feirense or draw

66%

Feirense or Chaves

72%

Draw or Chaves

62%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+

16%

Chaves wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals

70%

Feirense 2+ goals

34%

Feirense 3+ goals

12%

Chaves 1+ goals

68%

Chaves 2+ goals

32%

Chaves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)

53%

Chaves (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.12 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 1.31 + Chaves defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chaves attack 1.28 + Feirense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Feirense scores more

38%

level

28%

Chaves scores more

34%

Feirense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

36'

42'

57'

60'

Cristian Ponde← Neneco

69'

Nile John

71'

S. Petkov← Leandro Antunes

71'

O. Shodipo← Rúben Alves

71'

R. Wilson← Pedro Tiba

71'

P. Ayongo← Tiago Reis

77'

Zidane Banjaqui

78'

Alberto Soro

78'

Leandro Sanca← Wellington Carvalho

78'

Rúben Pina← Alberto Soro

81'

A. Rehmi← Zé Ricardo

84'

Lucas Cañizares

84'

Kiko Pereira

87'

Tiago Almeida← Pedro Pinho

90+10'

Leandro Sanca

Statistics

FeirenseChaves

Discipline

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1