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Feirense vs Botafogo BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Feirense
Feirense
FT
2 – 2
Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
6/26/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 8Estádio José Trindade Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Feirense31%
×Draw28%
Botafogo BA41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feirense
1.09
Botafogo BA
1.30

Botafogo BA creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Feirense
0.75
Botafogo BA
1.22

allows per match

Feirense
1.38
Botafogo BA
1.44

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par
Botafogo BA+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Botafogo BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Feirense or draw
59%
Feirense or Botafogo BA
72%
Draw or Botafogo BA
69%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+
12%
Botafogo BA wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals
66%
Feirense 2+ goals
30%
Feirense 3+ goals
10%
Botafogo BA 1+ goals
73%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
37%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)
43%
Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Botafogo BA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 0.75 + Botafogo BA defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Botafogo BA attack 1.22 + Feirense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Feirense scores more
31%
level
28%
Botafogo BA scores more
41%

Botafogo BA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botafogo BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feirense vs Botafogo BA

Feirense and Botafogo BA drew 2-2 in Baiano - 2 on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio José Trindade Lobo in Santo Antônio de Jesus, Bahia.