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Feirense vs Benfica B — Segunda Liga 2018

Feirense
Feirense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Benfica B
Benfica B
10/25/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 8Estadio Marcolino de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Feirense43%
×Draw26%
Benfica B31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feirense
1.42
Benfica B
1.17

Feirense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 133 away

creates per match

Feirense
1.30
Benfica B
1.35

allows per match

Feirense
0.98
Benfica B
1.53

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par
Benfica B+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Benfica B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Feirense or draw
69%
Feirense or Benfica B
74%
Draw or Benfica B
57%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+
20%
Benfica B wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals
76%
Feirense 2+ goals
41%
Feirense 3+ goals
17%
Benfica B 1+ goals
69%
Benfica B 2+ goals
33%
Benfica B 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)
58%
Benfica B (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 115 matches

Benfica B away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 1.30 + Benfica B defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Benfica B attack 1.35 + Feirense defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Feirense scores more
43%
level
26%
Benfica B scores more
31%

Feirense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feirense vs Benfica B

Benfica B beat Feirense 2-0 in Segunda Liga on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Marcolino de Castro in Santa Maria da Feira.