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Feirense vs Alverca — Segunda Liga 2018

Feirense
Feirense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alverca
Alverca
A. Carter 49'
3/30/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 27Estádio Marcolino de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Feirense37%
×Draw28%
Alverca36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feirense
1.21
Alverca
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 18 away

creates per match

Feirense
1.31
Alverca
1.39

allows per match

Feirense
0.99
Alverca
1.11

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Feirense or draw
64%
Feirense or Alverca
72%
Draw or Alverca
63%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+
16%
Alverca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals
70%
Feirense 2+ goals
34%
Feirense 3+ goals
12%
Alverca 1+ goals
70%
Alverca 2+ goals
33%
Alverca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)
51%
Alverca (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 1.31 + Alverca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alverca attack 1.39 + Feirense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Feirense scores more
37%
level
28%
Alverca scores more
36%

Feirense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
A. Carter
59'
S. Petkov← Jorge Pereira
59'
O. Shodipo← Cristian Ponde
62'
Ricardo Dias← David Bruno
69'
Bruno Silva← Zé Ricardo
72'
Reinaldo← Brenner
74'
Anthony Carter
76'
João Victor
80'
Alysson← Diogo Martins
80'
Wilson Eduardo← Andrézinho
80'
João Lima← A. Carter
81'
Sema Velázquez
82'
A. Rehmi← Neneco
82'
Tiago Ribeiro← Diga
90+5'
Bruno Silva
90+3'
Leandro Antunes

Shots

0Feirense

Statistics

FeirenseAlverca
Overview
0Total Shots1
0Fouls1
Shots
0Total Shots1
0On Target1
Discipline
0Fouls1

Segunda Liga: Feirense 0–1 Alverca

Alverca beat Feirense 1-0 in Segunda Liga on March 30, 2025.

Goals: A. Carter (49').

The match was played at Estádio Marcolino de Castro in Santa Maria da Feira.