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Fehérvár FC vs Pécsi MFC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pécsi MFC
Pécsi MFC
7/8/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fehérvár FC61%
×Draw19%
Pécsi MFC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fehérvár FC
2.32
Pécsi MFC
1.23

Fehérvár FC creates 89% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Fehérvár FC
2.43
Pécsi MFC
1.60

allows per match

Fehérvár FC
0.86
Pécsi MFC
2.20

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par
Pécsi MFC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

Pécsi MFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw
81%
Fehérvár FC or Pécsi MFC
81%
Draw or Pécsi MFC
39%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
39%
Pécsi MFC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
90%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
67%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
40%
Pécsi MFC 1+ goals
71%
Pécsi MFC 2+ goals
35%
Pécsi MFC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
76%
Pécsi MFC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Pécsi MFC away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 2.43 + Pécsi MFC defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.32

Pécsi MFC attack 1.60 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more
61%
level
19%
Pécsi MFC scores more
19%

Fehérvár FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Fehérvár
Pécsi
Tamas Peto
Manager: Tamas Peto
A. Zoltán
Manager: A. Zoltán

Friendlies Clubs: Fehérvár FC 0–1 Pécsi MFC

Pécsi MFC beat Fehérvár FC 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2026.