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Fehérvár FC vs Paks — League #271 2026

Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Paks
Paks
F. Holender 45'
J. Windecker 90+6'
B. Ötvös 75' (pen)
9/29/2024League #271League #271 · Round 8MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fehérvár FC56%
×Draw23%
Paks22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fehérvár FC
1.87
Paks
1.08

Fehérvár FC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 43 away

creates per match

Fehérvár FC
1.90
Paks
1.30

allows per match

Fehérvár FC
0.86
Paks
1.84

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par
Paks+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

Paks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw
78%
Fehérvár FC or Paks
77%
Draw or Paks
44%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
32%
Paks wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
85%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
56%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
29%
Paks 1+ goals
66%
Paks 2+ goals
29%
Paks 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
72%
Paks (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Paks away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.84 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 1.90 + Paks defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.87

Paks attack 1.30 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more
56%
level
23%
Paks scores more
22%

Fehérvár FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
B. ÖtvösPaksPaks · D
8.5

Match Events

18'
Kasper Larsen
35'
M. Pető← B. Melnyk
38'
Bence Ötvös
41'
Ivan Milićević
45'
F. Holender↳ Á. Csongvai
46'
J. Windecker← G. Vas
46'
E. Silye← Z. Haraszti
51'
József WindeckerMissed penalty
53'
B. Bedi← I. Miličević
62'
M. Katona← N. Serafimov
65'
Milán Gyorfi
67'
D. Böde← B. Tóth
67'
D. Zimonyi← B. Vécsei
71'
Filip Holender
74'
Szabolcs MezeiPenalty confirmed
75'
B. ÖtvösPenalty
78'
Kasper Larsen
78'
Kasper Larsen
83'
Ákos Kinyik
87'
R. Varga← S. Mezei
90+6'
J. Windecker↳ R. Varga

Possession

42%Fehérvár

Shots

10Fehérvár

Pass accuracy

50%Fehérvár

Statistics

FehérvárPaks
Overview
42%Possession58%
10Total Shots15
3Corners6
18Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots15
5On Target6
5Off Target4
0Blocked5
5Inside Box9
5Outside Box6
Passing
42%Possession58%
326Total Passes458
247Accurate Passes353
76%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls15
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0

League #271: Fehérvár FC 1–2 Paks

Paks beat Fehérvár FC 2-1 in League #271 on September 29, 2024.

Goals: F. Holender (45'), B. Ötvös (75' pen), J. Windecker (90+6').

Paks controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at MOL Aréna Sóstó in Székesfehérvár.