Fehérvár FC 1–1 Mura: Result & Stats

Fehérvár FC

1 – 1

Mura

8/1/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Haladás Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fehérvár FC62%

×Draw19%

Mura19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fehérvár FCExpected goals in this matchMura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.29

Fehérvár FC

2.44

Mura

1.29

Fehérvár FC creates 89% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

2.43

creates per match

1.73

0.86

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Fehérvár FC

2.43

Mura

1.73

allows per match

Fehérvár FC

0.86

Mura

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Mura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

Mura →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw

81%

Fehérvár FC or Mura

81%

Draw or Mura

38%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

41%

Mura wins by 2+

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

91%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

70%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

43%

Mura 1+ goals

72%

Mura 2+ goals

37%

Mura 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

77%

Mura (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Mura away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 2.43 + Mura defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.44

Mura attack 1.73 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more

62%

level

19%

Mura scores more

19%

Fehérvár FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff