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Fehérvár FC vs III. Kerületi TUE — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
1/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fehérvár FC78%
×Draw12%
III. Kerületi TUE10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fehérvár FC
3.32
III. Kerületi TUE
1.13

Fehérvár FC creates 194% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Fehérvár FC
2.43
III. Kerületi TUE
1.40

allows per match

Fehérvár FC
0.86
III. Kerületi TUE
4.20

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw
90%
Fehérvár FC or III. Kerületi TUE
88%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
22%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
60%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
96%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
84%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
62%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
68%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
31%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
89%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 1.40, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 2.43 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.32

III. Kerületi TUE attack 1.40 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more
78%
level
12%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
10%

Fehérvár FC at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fehérvár FC vs III. Kerületi TUE

III. Kerületi TUE beat Fehérvár FC 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 22, 2026.