Fehérvár FC 2–1 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

Fehérvár FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

F91 Dudelange

7/17/2018

UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying RoundPancho Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fehérvár FC35%

×Draw31%

F91 Dudelange35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fehérvár FCExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

Fehérvár FC

1.00

F91 Dudelange

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.25

0.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fehérvár FC

1.00

F91 Dudelange

1.25

allows per match

Fehérvár FC

0.75

F91 Dudelange

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw

65%

Fehérvár FC or F91 Dudelange

69%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

65%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

13%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

63%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

26%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

8%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

63%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

26%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

50%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 1.00 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

F91 Dudelange attack 1.25 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more

35%

level

31%

F91 Dudelange scores more

35%

Fehérvár FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff