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Fehérvár FC vs Budafoki LC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
FT
2 – 1
Budafoki LC
Budafoki LC
5/17/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fehérvár FC40%
×Draw23%
Budafoki LC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fehérvár FC
1.72
Budafoki LC
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fehérvár FC
2.43
Budafoki LC
2.42

allows per match

Fehérvár FC
0.86
Budafoki LC
1.00

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par
Budafoki LC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

Budafoki LC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw
63%
Fehérvár FC or Budafoki LC
77%
Draw or Budafoki LC
60%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
21%
Budafoki LC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
82%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
51%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
25%
Budafoki LC 1+ goals
81%
Budafoki LC 2+ goals
49%
Budafoki LC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
52%
Budafoki LC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Budafoki LC away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 2.43 + Budafoki LC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Budafoki LC attack 2.42 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more
40%
level
23%
Budafoki LC scores more
37%

Fehérvár FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fehérvár FC vs Budafoki LC

Fehérvár FC beat Budafoki LC 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on May 17, 2020.

The match was played at MOL Aréna Sóstó in Székesfehérvár.