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Fehérvár FC vs Brinje-Grosuplje — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
1/17/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Igralište Umag 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fehérvár FC72%
×Draw16%
Brinje-Grosuplje12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fehérvár FC
2.55
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.93

Fehérvár FC creates 174% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fehérvár FC
2.43
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00

allows per match

Fehérvár FC
0.86
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.67

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par
Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

Brinje-Grosuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw
88%
Fehérvár FC or Brinje-Grosuplje
84%
Draw or Brinje-Grosuplje
28%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
50%
Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
92%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
72%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
46%
Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals
61%
Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals
24%
Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
86%
Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Brinje-Grosuplje away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 2.43 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.55

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.00 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more
72%
level
16%
Brinje-Grosuplje scores more
12%

Fehérvár FC at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Fehérvár FC 1–2 Brinje-Grosuplje

Brinje-Grosuplje beat Fehérvár FC 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2025.

The match was played at Igralište Umag 4 in Umag.