Fehérvár FC 1–2 AEK Athens FC: Result & Stats

Fehérvár FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AEK Athens FC

8/22/2018

UEFA Champions League · Play-offsGroupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fehérvár FC51%

×Draw29%

AEK Athens FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fehérvár FCExpected goals in this matchAEK Athens FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.68

Fehérvár FC

1.30

AEK Athens FC

0.68

Fehérvár FC creates 91% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.60

0.75

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Fehérvár FC

1.00

AEK Athens FC

0.60

allows per match

Fehérvár FC

0.75

AEK Athens FC

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

AEK Athens FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw

80%

Fehérvár FC or AEK Athens FC

71%

Draw or AEK Athens FC

49%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

24%

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

73%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

37%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

14%

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals

49%

AEK Athens FC 2+ goals

15%

AEK Athens FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

73%

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 1.00 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

AEK Athens FC attack 0.60 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more

51%

level

29%

AEK Athens FC scores more

20%

Fehérvár FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff