FCSB 1–0 Universitatea Craiova: Result & Stats

FCSB

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Universitatea Craiova

5/17/2025

Liga I · Championship Round - 9Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

FCSB44%

×Draw26%

Universitatea Craiova30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

FCSB

1.48

Universitatea Craiova

1.19

FCSB creates 24% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 155 away

1.84

creates per match

1.38

0.99

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

FCSB

1.84

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

FCSB

0.99

Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

70%

FCSB or Universitatea Craiova

74%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

56%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

21%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

77%

FCSB 2+ goals

43%

FCSB 3+ goals

19%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

70%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

33%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

59%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.99 · 154 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + FCSB defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FCSB scores more

44%

level

26%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

30%

FCSB at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff