FCSB 2–0 Universitatea Craiova: Result & Stats

FCSB

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Universitatea Craiova

Ș. Vlădoiu 32' (OG)

F. Coman 29'

4/7/2024

Liga I · Championship Round - 3Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

FCSB44%

×Draw26%

Universitatea Craiova30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.18

FCSB

1.48

Universitatea Craiova

1.18

FCSB creates 25% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 157 away

1.85

creates per match

1.38

0.98

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

FCSB

1.85

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

FCSB

0.98

Universitatea Craiova

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

70%

FCSB or Universitatea Craiova

74%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

56%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

22%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

77%

FCSB 2+ goals

43%

FCSB 3+ goals

19%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

69%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

33%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

59%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.98 · 155 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.11 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.85 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.48

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + FCSB defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FCSB scores more

44%

level

26%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

30%

FCSB at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

F. Coman

FCSB · F

8.0

Match Events

6'

7'

17'

24'

28'

29'

32'

Ș. VlădoiuOwn goal

46'

G. Cîmpanu← A. Ivan

49'

Lyes Houri

61'

M. Danciu← Ș. Baiaram

68'

J. Marković← Jalen Blesa

74'

E. Radaslavescu← Octavian Popescu

74'

B. Alhassan← D. Miculescu

78'

N. Bancu← M. Căpățînă

78'

E. Koljić← L. Houri

82'

Nicușor Bancu

87'

N. Antwi← D. Olaru

90+2'

J. Dawa← F. Coman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSBUniversitatea

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots15

5Corners7

9Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots15

5On Target3

5Off Target8

2Blocked4

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

345Total Passes506

254Accurate Passes424

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1