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FCSB vs Slovan Liberec — UEFA Europa League 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
9/24/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FCSB46%
×Draw22%
Slovan Liberec32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.99
Slovan Liberec
1.63

FCSB creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.58
Slovan Liberec
2.00

allows per match

FCSB
1.25
Slovan Liberec
2.40

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Slovan Liberec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
68%
FCSB or Slovan Liberec
78%
Draw or Slovan Liberec
54%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
26%
Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
86%
FCSB 2+ goals
59%
FCSB 3+ goals
32%
Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
80%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
48%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
59%
Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.58 + Slovan Liberec defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.99

Slovan Liberec attack 2.00 + FCSB defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FCSB scores more
46%
level
22%
Slovan Liberec scores more
32%

FCSB at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: FCSB 0–2 Slovan Liberec

Slovan Liberec beat FCSB 2-0 in UEFA Europa League on September 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.