FCSB 0–5 Silkeborg: Result & Stats

FCSB

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Silkeborg

S. Jørgensen 70', 68'

S. Tengstedt 63'

A. Klynge 16'

K. Kusk 12'

10/13/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FCSB24%

×Draw24%

Silkeborg51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchSilkeborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.66

FCSB

1.06

Silkeborg

1.66

Silkeborg creates 57% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.11

creates per match

1.75

1.56

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FCSB

1.11

Silkeborg

1.75

allows per match

FCSB

1.56

Silkeborg

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

Silkeborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Silkeborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

49%

FCSB or Silkeborg

76%

Draw or Silkeborg

76%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

9%

Silkeborg wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

65%

FCSB 2+ goals

29%

FCSB 3+ goals

9%

Silkeborg 1+ goals

81%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

49%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

32%

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Silkeborg away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.11 + Silkeborg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Silkeborg attack 1.75 + FCSB defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FCSB scores more

24%

level

24%

Silkeborg scores more

51%

Silkeborg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Silkeborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Larsen

Silkeborg · G

8.7

Match Events

12'

K. Kusk↳ N. Helenius

16'

A. Klynge

37'

Valentin Crețu

46'

D. Miculescu← Octavian Popescu

46'

E. Rădăslăvescu← R. Oaidă

55'

S. Tengstedt← K. Kusk

63'

S. Tengstedt↳ M. Brink

67'

I. Stoica← A. Compagno

68'

Andrei Cordea

68'

S. Jørgensen↳ S. Tengstedt

70'

S. Jørgensen↳ L. Engel

72'

73'

73'

73'

73'

73'

T. Adamsen← N. Helenius

73'

A. Oggesen← M. Brink

84'

A. Dahl← S. Jørgensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSBSilkeborg

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots15

2Corners5

11Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots15

8On Target7

5Off Target6

2Blocked2

8Inside Box10

7Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

512Total Passes541

437Accurate Passes447

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2