FCSB 1–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe: Result & Stats

FCSB

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

4/25/2021

Liga I · Championship Round - 3Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FCSB51%

×Draw22%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.42

FCSB

2.01

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.42

FCSB creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

2.34

creates per match

2.02

0.82

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

FCSB

2.34

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

2.02

allows per match

FCSB

0.82

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.68

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

FCSB-0.72scores less

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe-0.22scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

73%

FCSB or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

78%

Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

49%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

30%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

87%

FCSB 2+ goals

59%

FCSB 3+ goals

32%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

76%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

41%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

65%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.82 · 13 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.68 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.34 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 2.02 + FCSB defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FCSB scores more

51%

level

22%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

27%

FCSB at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff