FCSB 4–2 Saburtalo: Result & Stats

FCSB

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Saburtalo

R. Radunović 87' (pen)

F. Coman 80'

M. Edjouma 55'

J. Dawa 44'

I. Tabatadze 78'

G. Goshteliani 69'

7/28/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundArena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FCSB46%

×Draw27%

Saburtalo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchSaburtalo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.03

FCSB

1.43

Saburtalo

1.03

FCSB creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.11

creates per match

0.50

1.56

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

FCSB

1.11

Saburtalo

0.50

allows per match

FCSB

1.56

Saburtalo

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

Saburtalo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Saburtalo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

73%

FCSB or Saburtalo

73%

Draw or Saburtalo

54%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

22%

Saburtalo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

76%

FCSB 2+ goals

42%

FCSB 3+ goals

17%

Saburtalo 1+ goals

64%

Saburtalo 2+ goals

28%

Saburtalo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

63%

Saburtalo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Saburtalo away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.11 + Saburtalo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Saburtalo attack 0.50 + FCSB defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FCSB scores more

46%

level

27%

Saburtalo scores more

27%

FCSB at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

30'

32'

44'

46'

55'

59'

62'

G. Goshteliani← G. Guliashvili

69'

G. Goshteliani

78'

I. Tabatadze

79'

O. Mamageishvili← S. Nonikashvili

80'

Guram Goshteliani

80'

F. Coman

86'

Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava

86'

R. Oaidă← F. Coman

87'

R. RadunovićPenalty

88'

M. Lixandru← M. Edjouma

90+3'

Octavian Popescu

90+4'

Andrei Cordea

90+3'

Gia Chaduneli

Statistics

FCSBSaburtalo

Overview

7Corners2

Discipline

3Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: FCSB vs Saburtalo

FCSB beat Saburtalo 4-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 28, 2022.

Goals: J. Dawa (44'), M. Edjouma (55'), G. Goshteliani (69'), I. Tabatadze (78'), F. Coman (80'), R. Radunović (87' pen).

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.

FCSB vs Saburtalo — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: FCSB vs Saburtalo