FCSB 2–1 GAZ Metan Medias: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

GAZ Metan Medias

F. Tănase 53' (pen)

D. Man 41'

Carlos Fortes 63'

12/2/2018

Liga I · Round 17Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

FCSB56%

×Draw24%

GAZ Metan Medias21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.94

FCSB

1.72

GAZ Metan Medias

0.94

FCSB creates 83% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 76 away

1.85

creates per match

0.89

0.98

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

FCSB

1.85

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

FCSB

0.98

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

79%

FCSB or GAZ Metan Medias

76%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

44%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

31%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

82%

FCSB 2+ goals

51%

FCSB 3+ goals

25%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

61%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

24%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

73%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.98 · 155 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.85 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.72

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + FCSB defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FCSB scores more

56%

level

24%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

21%

FCSB at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

9'

27'

35'

38'

38'

41'

D. Man↳ M. Roman

46'

L. Filip← Junior Maranhão

53'

F. TănasePenalty

57'

Valentin Cretu

63'

Carlos Fortes↳ D. Olaru

65'

O. Moruţan← M. Roman

69'

Olimpiu Moruțan

76'

Filipe Teixeira← F. Coman

79'

Sorin Marian Buşu

79'

N. Chamed← Ely Fernandes

82'

R. Trif← D. Olaru

82'

Yazalde← Carlos Fortes

83'

83'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCSBGAZ

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots12

5Corners1

19Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target6

5Off Target6

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls16

3Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2