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FCSB vs FC Nordsjaelland — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland
8/10/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FCSB30%
×Draw29%
FC Nordsjaelland41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
0.96
FC Nordsjaelland
1.18

FC Nordsjaelland creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.11
FC Nordsjaelland
0.80

allows per match

FCSB
1.56
FC Nordsjaelland
0.80

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
59%
FCSB or FC Nordsjaelland
71%
Draw or FC Nordsjaelland
70%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
11%
FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
62%
FCSB 2+ goals
25%
FCSB 3+ goals
7%
FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals
69%
FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals
33%
FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
42%
FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.11 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

FC Nordsjaelland attack 0.80 + FCSB defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FCSB scores more
30%
level
29%
FC Nordsjaelland scores more
41%

FC Nordsjaelland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Adamo Nagalo
46'
Octavian Popescu← A. Cordea
49'
D. Svensson← M. Dorgeles
56'
B. Nygren← M. Ingvartsen
56'
O. Antman← I. Osman
59'
Adamo Nagalo
59'
Adamo Nagalo
61'
V. Gheorghe← A. Compagno
73'
Florinel Coman
74'
M. Edjouma← D. Đoković
82'
L. Coulibaly← E. Nuamah
82'
E. Marxen← J. Jensen-Abbew
88'
Malcom Edjouma
90+1'
Vlad Chiricheş

Shots

7FCSB

Statistics

FCSBFC
Overview
7Total Shots10
2Corners5
12Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots10
1On Target3
6Off Target5
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2

UEFA Europa Conference League: FCSB 0–0 FC Nordsjaelland

FCSB and FC Nordsjaelland drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Steaua in București.