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FCSB vs Dunarea Calarasi — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
F. Tănase 45' (pen)
D. Man 8'
9/23/2018Liga ILiga I · Round 9Arena Națională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FCSB58%
×Draw26%
Dunarea Calarasi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.54
Dunarea Calarasi
0.68

FCSB creates 126% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 21 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.84
Dunarea Calarasi
0.38

allows per match

FCSB
0.97
Dunarea Calarasi
1.24

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
84%
FCSB or Dunarea Calarasi
74%
Draw or Dunarea Calarasi
42%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
31%
Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
79%
FCSB 2+ goals
45%
FCSB 3+ goals
20%
Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
49%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
15%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
78%
Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dunarea Calarasi attack 0.38 + FCSB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FCSB scores more
58%
level
26%
Dunarea Calarasi scores more
16%

FCSB at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
D. Man
18'
Hamidou Keyta
45'
F. TănasePenalty
46'
H. Gnohéré← F. Tănase
57'
Baudoin Kanda
59'
O. Moruţan← R. Rusescu
60'
Denis Ispas
61'
Olimpiu Vasile Moruțan
67'
A. Munteanu← H. Keyta
74'
Alin Dobrosavlevici
78'
V. Alexandru← C. Pușcaș
79'
Filipe Teixeira← F. Coman
86'
Silviu Pana
90'
A. Bourceanu← B. Kanda

Possession

63%FCSB

Shots

16FCSB

Statistics

FCSBDunarea
Overview
63%Possession37%
16Total Shots11
4Corners5
13Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots11
6On Target4
10Off Target7
Passing
63%Possession37%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: FCSB vs Dunarea Calarasi

FCSB beat Dunarea Calarasi 2-0 in Liga I on September 23, 2018.

Goals: D. Man (8'), F. Tănase (45' pen).

FCSB controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Arena Națională in Bucharest.