FCSB 1–1 Chindia Targoviste: Result & Stats

FCSB

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chindia Targoviste

2/22/2020

Liga I · Round 26Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

FCSB51%

×Draw26%

Chindia Targoviste22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchChindia Targoviste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.88

FCSB

1.48

Chindia Targoviste

0.88

FCSB creates 68% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 76 away

1.85

creates per match

0.78

0.98

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

FCSB

1.85

Chindia Targoviste

0.78

allows per match

FCSB

0.98

Chindia Targoviste

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Chindia Targoviste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

78%

FCSB or Chindia Targoviste

74%

Draw or Chindia Targoviste

49%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

26%

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

77%

FCSB 2+ goals

43%

FCSB 3+ goals

19%

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

59%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

22%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

70%

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.98 · 155 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.85 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chindia Targoviste attack 0.78 + FCSB defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FCSB scores more

51%

level

26%

Chindia Targoviste scores more

22%

FCSB at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff