Chindia Targoviste 1–3 FCSB: Result & Stats

Chindia Targoviste

FT

1 – 3

FCSB

7/3/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Baza ARCOM

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chindia Targoviste46%

×Draw21%

FCSB33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chindia TargovisteExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.73

Chindia Targoviste

2.06

FCSB

1.73

Chindia Targoviste creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.29

creates per match

2.17

1.29

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste

2.29

FCSB

2.17

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste

1.29

FCSB

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw

67%

Chindia Targoviste or FCSB

79%

Draw or FCSB

54%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

26%

FCSB wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

87%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

61%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

34%

FCSB 1+ goals

82%

FCSB 2+ goals

52%

FCSB 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

58%

FCSB (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

FCSB away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 2.29 + FCSB defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

FCSB attack 2.17 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more

46%

level

21%

FCSB scores more

33%

Chindia Targoviste at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff