FCSB 1–1 AFC Hermannstadt: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Hermannstadt

1/17/2025

Liga I · Round 22Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

FCSB54%

×Draw25%

AFC Hermannstadt22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.94

FCSB

1.64

AFC Hermannstadt

0.94

FCSB creates 74% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 138 away

1.85

creates per match

0.90

0.98

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FCSB

1.85

AFC Hermannstadt

0.90

allows per match

FCSB

0.98

AFC Hermannstadt

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

78%

FCSB or AFC Hermannstadt

75%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

46%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

29%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

81%

FCSB 2+ goals

49%

FCSB 3+ goals

23%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

61%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

24%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

71%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.98 · 155 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.85 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + FCSB defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FCSB scores more

54%

level

25%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

22%

FCSB at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff