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FCSB vs AFC Hermannstadt — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
10/26/2020Liga ILiga I · Round 8Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FCSB64%
×Draw20%
AFC Hermannstadt16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
2.06
AFC Hermannstadt
0.90

FCSB creates 129% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

FCSB
2.34
AFC Hermannstadt
0.97

allows per match

FCSB
0.82
AFC Hermannstadt
1.78

finishing

FCSB-0.72scores less
AFC Hermannstadt+0.03on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
84%
FCSB or AFC Hermannstadt
80%
Draw or AFC Hermannstadt
36%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
40%
AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
87%
FCSB 2+ goals
61%
FCSB 3+ goals
34%
AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
59%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
23%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
80%
AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.82 · 13 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.78 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.34 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.06

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.97 + FCSB defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FCSB scores more
64%
level
20%
AFC Hermannstadt scores more
16%

FCSB at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FCSB 5–0 AFC Hermannstadt

FCSB beat AFC Hermannstadt 5-0 in Liga I on October 26, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.