FCSB vs AFC Hermannstadt — Liga I 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
FCSB64%
AFC Hermannstadt16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FCSB creates 129% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FCSB ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FCSB at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.82 · 13 matches
AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.78 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FCSB attack 2.34 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.06
AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.97 + FCSB defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
FCSB at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
AFC Hermannstadt substitutes
CFR 1907 ClujFCSB
Universitatea Craiova
FC Astra Giurgiu
Viitorul Constanta
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FC Botosani
Politehnica Iasi
Dinamo BucurestiAFC Hermannstadt
GAZ Metan Medias
Dunarea Calarasi
FC Voluntari
ConcordiaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
FCSB host AFC Hermannstadt on Monday, 11 February 2019 at 18:00. The match is part of the Liga I 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: FCSB vs AFC Hermannstadt
FCSB beat AFC Hermannstadt 3-0 in Liga I on February 11, 2019.
Goals: R. Dâlbea (3' o.g.), A. Hora (17'), Filipe Teixeira (90+2').
FCSB controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 12.
The match was played at Arena Națională in Bucharest.