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FCM Ungheni vs Speranța Drochia — Cupa 2020

FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
FT
5 – 0
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
8/15/2020CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Ungheni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FCM Ungheni40%
×Draw21%
Speranța Drochia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCM Ungheni
2.02
Speranța Drochia
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

FCM Ungheni
2.20
Speranța Drochia
2.33

allows per match

FCM Ungheni
1.60
Speranța Drochia
1.83

finishing

FCM Ungheni+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCM Ungheni ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

FCM Ungheni or draw
61%
FCM Ungheni or Speranța Drochia
79%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
60%

Winning margin

FCM Ungheni wins by 2+
22%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FCM Ungheni 1+ goals
87%
FCM Ungheni 2+ goals
60%
FCM Ungheni 3+ goals
33%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
86%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
58%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)
51%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCM Ungheni at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCM Ungheni attack 2.20 + Speranța Drochia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.02

Speranța Drochia attack 2.33 + FCM Ungheni defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FCM Ungheni scores more
40%
level
21%
Speranța Drochia scores more
39%

FCM Ungheni at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FCM Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: FCM Ungheni 5–0 Speranța Drochia

FCM Ungheni beat Speranța Drochia 5-0 in Cupa on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Ungheni in Ungheni.