FCM Ungheni 3–2 Sîngerei: Result & Stats | Cupa

FCM Ungheni

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sîngerei

N. Porojniuc 76', 18', 13'

A. Grab 60' (pen)

D. Maga 21'

8/29/2020

Cupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Ungheni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FCM Ungheni51%

×Draw21%

Sîngerei28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCM UngheniExpected goals in this matchSîngerei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.60

FCM Ungheni

2.20

Sîngerei

1.60

FCM Ungheni creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

1.60

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

FCM Ungheni

2.20

Sîngerei

1.60

allows per match

FCM Ungheni

1.60

Sîngerei

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCM Ungheni+0.00on par

Sîngerei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCM Ungheni ↓

Sîngerei →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

FCM Ungheni or draw

72%

FCM Ungheni or Sîngerei

79%

Draw or Sîngerei

49%

Winning margin

FCM Ungheni wins by 2+

31%

Sîngerei wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FCM Ungheni 1+ goals

89%

FCM Ungheni 2+ goals

64%

FCM Ungheni 3+ goals

37%

Sîngerei 1+ goals

80%

Sîngerei 2+ goals

47%

Sîngerei 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)

64%

Sîngerei (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FCM Ungheni at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Sîngerei away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FCM Ungheni attack 2.20 + Sîngerei defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.20

Sîngerei attack 1.60 + FCM Ungheni defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

FCM Ungheni scores more

51%

level

21%

Sîngerei scores more

28%

FCM Ungheni at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FCM Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

N. Porojniuc

18'

N. Porojniuc

21'

D. Maga

60'

A. GrabPenalty

76'

N. Porojniuc

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff