FCI Tallinn 0–0 Kuressaare: Result & Stats | Cup

FCI Tallinn

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kuressaare

8/27/2020

Cup · 32nd FinalsInfoneti Lasnamäe jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FCI Tallinn40%

×Draw18%

Kuressaare42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCI TallinnExpected goals in this matchKuressaare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

3.10

FCI Tallinn

3.04

Kuressaare

3.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

5.20

creates per match

5.00

1.20

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

FCI Tallinn

5.20

Kuressaare

5.00

allows per match

FCI Tallinn

1.20

Kuressaare

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCI Tallinn+0.00on par

Kuressaare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCI Tallinn ↓

Kuressaare →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–12%

1–23%

1–34%

1–43%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

85%15%4.5

71%29%

Double chance

FCI Tallinn or draw

58%

FCI Tallinn or Kuressaare

82%

Draw or Kuressaare

60%

Winning margin

FCI Tallinn wins by 2+

24%

Kuressaare wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

FCI Tallinn 1+ goals

95%

FCI Tallinn 2+ goals

80%

FCI Tallinn 3+ goals

57%

Kuressaare 1+ goals

95%

Kuressaare 2+ goals

81%

Kuressaare 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

FCI Tallinn (draw refunded)

49%

Kuressaare (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

88%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FCI Tallinn at home — creates 5.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Kuressaare away — creates 5.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FCI Tallinn attack 5.20 + Kuressaare defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 3.04

Kuressaare attack 5.00 + FCI Tallinn defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 3.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

FCI Tallinn scores more

40%

level

18%

Kuressaare scores more

42%

Kuressaare at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kuressaare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff