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FCI Tallinn vs Helios — Cup 2020

FCI Tallinn
FCI Tallinn
FT
5 – 1
Helios
Helios
7/28/2020CupCup · 64th FinalsLasnamäe Kergejõustikuhalli kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FCI Tallinn79%
×Draw11%
Helios10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCI Tallinn
3.94
Helios
1.44

FCI Tallinn creates 174% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

FCI Tallinn
5.20
Helios
1.67

allows per match

FCI Tallinn
1.20
Helios
2.67

finishing

FCI Tallinn+0.00on par
Helios+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCI Tallinn ↓

Helios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

FCI Tallinn or draw
90%
FCI Tallinn or Helios
89%
Draw or Helios
21%

Winning margin

FCI Tallinn wins by 2+
62%
Helios wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FCI Tallinn 1+ goals
98%
FCI Tallinn 2+ goals
89%
FCI Tallinn 3+ goals
72%
Helios 1+ goals
76%
Helios 2+ goals
42%
Helios 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FCI Tallinn (draw refunded)
89%
Helios (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCI Tallinn at home — creates 5.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Helios away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCI Tallinn attack 5.20 + Helios defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.94

Helios attack 1.67 + FCI Tallinn defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

FCI Tallinn scores more
79%
level
11%
Helios scores more
10%

FCI Tallinn at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "FCI Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FCI Tallinn vs Helios

FCI Tallinn beat Helios 5-1 in Cup on July 28, 2020.

The match was played at Lasnamäe Kergejõustikuhalli kunstmuruväljak in Tallinn.