FCI Tallinn 2–3 Flora II: Result & Stats | Cup

FCI Tallinn

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Flora II

9/21/2021

Cup · Round of 32Lasnamäe Kergejõustikuhalli kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FCI Tallinn76%

×Draw12%

Flora II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCI TallinnExpected goals in this matchFlora II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

5.03

2.17

FCI Tallinn

5.03

Flora II

2.17

FCI Tallinn creates 132% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

5.20

creates per match

3.14

1.20

allows per match

4.86

creates per match

FCI Tallinn

5.20

Flora II

3.14

allows per match

FCI Tallinn

1.20

Flora II

4.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCI Tallinn+0.00on par

Flora II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over97
Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCI Tallinn ↓

Flora II →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–00%

1–11%

1–21%

1–31%

1–40%

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–35%

4–42%

Most likely 4–1 (6%) · grid covers 54% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

97%3%3.5

90%10%4.5

79%21%

Double chance

FCI Tallinn or draw

88%

FCI Tallinn or Flora II

88%

Draw or Flora II

24%

Winning margin

FCI Tallinn wins by 2+

60%

Flora II wins by 2+

Team goals

FCI Tallinn 1+ goals

99%

FCI Tallinn 2+ goals

95%

FCI Tallinn 3+ goals

84%

Flora II 1+ goals

89%

Flora II 2+ goals

64%

Flora II 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

FCI Tallinn (draw refunded)

86%

Flora II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

87%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FCI Tallinn at home — creates 5.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Flora II away — creates 3.14, concedes 4.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FCI Tallinn attack 5.20 + Flora II defence 4.86 → ÷2 → 5.03

Flora II attack 3.14 + FCI Tallinn defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

FCI Tallinn scores more

76%

level

12%

Flora II scores more

12%

FCI Tallinn at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "FCI Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff