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FCI Levadia II vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
10/22/2022Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 33Maarjamäe kompleksi kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

FCI Levadia II66%
×Draw17%
K-Järve JK Järve17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCI Levadia II
2.62
K-Järve JK Järve
1.25

FCI Levadia II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 69 away

creates per match

FCI Levadia II
2.10
K-Järve JK Järve
0.96

allows per match

FCI Levadia II
1.55
K-Järve JK Järve
3.13

finishing

FCI Levadia II+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCI Levadia II ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FCI Levadia II or draw
83%
FCI Levadia II or K-Järve JK Järve
83%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
34%

Winning margin

FCI Levadia II wins by 2+
45%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FCI Levadia II 1+ goals
93%
FCI Levadia II 2+ goals
73%
FCI Levadia II 3+ goals
48%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
71%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
36%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FCI Levadia II (draw refunded)
80%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCI Levadia II at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.55 · 125 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.13 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCI Levadia II attack 2.10 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.62

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.96 + FCI Levadia II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FCI Levadia II scores more
66%
level
17%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
17%

FCI Levadia II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FCI Levadia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FCI Levadia II vs K-Järve JK Järve

FCI Levadia II beat K-Järve JK Järve 4-0 in Esiliiga A on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Maarjamäe kompleksi kunstmuruväljak in Tallinn.