FC Zurich vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

FC Zurich

Preview

12:00

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

48%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

model favours

31%21%48%

Both teams score in 100% of FC Zurich’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2

likely score

74%

over 2.5 goals

72%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Zurich31%

×Draw21%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ZurichExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

2.16

FC Zurich

1.71

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2.16

SpVgg Greuther Fürth creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.85

creates per match

2.00

2.31

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FC Zurich

1.85

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2.00

allows per match

FC Zurich

2.31

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw

52%

FC Zurich or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

79%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

69%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+

15%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals

82%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

51%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

24%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

88%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

63%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

39%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.85 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 2.00 + FC Zurich defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Zurich scores more

31%

level

21%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

48%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

FC Zurich score first in only 18% of matches
82% of FC Zurich’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Zurich

LLLWW

Fürth

WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff