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FC Zurich vs Napoli — UEFA Europa League 2026

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Napoli
Napoli
2/14/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 16th FinalsLetzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Zurich33%
×Draw23%
Napoli43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
1.47
Napoli
1.71

Napoli creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
1.67
Napoli
1.64

allows per match

FC Zurich
1.78
Napoli
1.27

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par
Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
57%
FC Zurich or Napoli
77%
Draw or Napoli
67%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
15%
Napoli wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
77%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
43%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
18%
Napoli 1+ goals
82%
Napoli 2+ goals
51%
Napoli 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
43%
Napoli (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.67 + Napoli defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.47

Napoli attack 1.64 + FC Zurich defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Zurich scores more
33%
level
23%
Napoli scores more
43%

Napoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Zurich vs Napoli

Napoli beat FC Zurich 3-1 in UEFA Europa League on February 14, 2019.

The match was played at Letzigrund in Zurich.