FC Zurich 0–4 Hannover 96: Result & Stats

FC Zurich

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Hannover 96

1/9/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Campo Hotel Barceló Montecastillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Zurich17%

×Draw16%

Hannover 9667%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ZurichExpected goals in this matchHannover 96

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.94

FC Zurich

1.45

Hannover 96

2.94

Hannover 96 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

2.07

creates per match

3.67

2.21

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

FC Zurich

2.07

Hannover 96

3.67

allows per match

FC Zurich

2.21

Hannover 96

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par

Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

Hannover 96 →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw

33%

FC Zurich or Hannover 96

84%

Draw or Hannover 96

83%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+

Hannover 96 wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals

77%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

42%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

18%

Hannover 96 1+ goals

95%

Hannover 96 2+ goals

79%

Hannover 96 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

20%

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 2.07, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 2.07 + Hannover 96 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hannover 96 attack 3.67 + FC Zurich defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Zurich scores more

17%

level

16%

Hannover 96 scores more

67%

Hannover 96 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff