FC Zurich 2–2 Hamburger SV: Result & Stats

FC Zurich

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hamburger SV

1/11/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Zurich52%

×Draw19%

Hamburger SV29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ZurichExpected goals in this matchHamburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.89

FC Zurich

2.54

Hamburger SV

1.89

FC Zurich creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

2.07

creates per match

1.57

2.21

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

FC Zurich

2.07

Hamburger SV

1.57

allows per match

FC Zurich

2.21

Hamburger SV

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

Hamburger SV →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw

71%

FC Zurich or Hamburger SV

81%

Draw or Hamburger SV

48%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+

32%

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals

92%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

72%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

46%

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

85%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

56%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

64%

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 2.07, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.57, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 2.07 + Hamburger SV defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.54

Hamburger SV attack 1.57 + FC Zurich defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Zurich scores more

52%

level

19%

Hamburger SV scores more

29%

FC Zurich at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff