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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs VfL Osnabruck — League #80 2026

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
8/22/2021League #80League #80 · Round 4flyeralarm-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers42%
×Draw28%
VfL Osnabruck31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.29
VfL Osnabruck
1.06

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.80
VfL Osnabruck
1.00

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.13
VfL Osnabruck
1.78

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

VfL Osnabruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
69%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or VfL Osnabruck
72%
Draw or VfL Osnabruck
58%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
19%
VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
72%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
37%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
14%
VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
65%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
29%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
58%
VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.80 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.00 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
42%
level
28%
VfL Osnabruck scores more
31%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #80: FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–1 VfL Osnabruck

FC Wurzburger Kickers and VfL Osnabruck drew 1-1 in League #80 on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at flyeralarm-Arena in Würzburg.