FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–1 FC Nurnberg

FC Wurzburger Kickers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Nurnberg

4/23/2017

2. Bundesliga · Round 30Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers36%

×Draw25%

FC Nurnberg38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Wurzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchFC Nurnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.43

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.39

FC Nurnberg

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 122 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

1.48

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.00

FC Nurnberg

1.38

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.48

FC Nurnberg

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

FC Nurnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw

62%

FC Wurzburger Kickers or FC Nurnberg

75%

Draw or FC Nurnberg

64%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

17%

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

75%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

40%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

16%

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

76%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

42%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

49%

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.78 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.00 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Nurnberg attack 1.38 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

36%

level

25%

FC Nurnberg scores more

38%

FC Nurnberg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff