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FC Wohlen vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

FC Wohlen
FC Wohlen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Thun II
Thun II
11/18/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Niedermatten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FC Wohlen51%
×Draw22%
Thun II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wohlen
2.00
Thun II
1.41

FC Wohlen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 45 away

creates per match

FC Wohlen
1.95
Thun II
1.33

allows per match

FC Wohlen
1.48
Thun II
2.04

finishing

FC Wohlen+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wohlen ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Wohlen or draw
73%
FC Wohlen or Thun II
78%
Draw or Thun II
49%

Winning margin

FC Wohlen wins by 2+
29%
Thun II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Wohlen 1+ goals
86%
FC Wohlen 2+ goals
59%
FC Wohlen 3+ goals
32%
Thun II 1+ goals
76%
Thun II 2+ goals
41%
Thun II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Wohlen (draw refunded)
65%
Thun II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wohlen at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wohlen attack 1.95 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.00

Thun II attack 1.33 + FC Wohlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Wohlen scores more
51%
level
22%
Thun II scores more
27%

FC Wohlen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Wohlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: FC Wohlen 4–0 Thun II

FC Wohlen beat Thun II 4-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Niedermatten in Wohlen.