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FC Wohlen vs Muri — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

FC Wohlen
FC Wohlen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Muri
Muri
10/8/20221. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion Niedermatten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FC Wohlen63%
×Draw18%
Muri20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wohlen
2.71
Muri
1.49

FC Wohlen creates 82% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

FC Wohlen
1.95
Muri
1.50

allows per match

FC Wohlen
1.48
Muri
3.47

finishing

FC Wohlen+0.00on par
Muri+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wohlen ↓

Muri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

FC Wohlen or draw
80%
FC Wohlen or Muri
82%
Draw or Muri
37%

Winning margin

FC Wohlen wins by 2+
42%
Muri wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Wohlen 1+ goals
93%
FC Wohlen 2+ goals
75%
FC Wohlen 3+ goals
50%
Muri 1+ goals
77%
Muri 2+ goals
44%
Muri 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Wohlen (draw refunded)
76%
Muri (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wohlen at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Muri away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wohlen attack 1.95 + Muri defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.71

Muri attack 1.50 + FC Wohlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Wohlen scores more
63%
level
18%
Muri scores more
20%

FC Wohlen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Wohlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Wohlen vs Muri

FC Wohlen beat Muri 4-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Niedermatten in Wohlen.