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FC Wohlen vs Concordia Basel — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

FC Wohlen
FC Wohlen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
11/25/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Niedermatten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FC Wohlen42%
×Draw22%
Concordia Basel36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wohlen
1.86
Concordia Basel
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 60 away

creates per match

FC Wohlen
1.95
Concordia Basel
1.93

allows per match

FC Wohlen
1.48
Concordia Basel
1.77

finishing

FC Wohlen+0.00on par
Concordia Basel+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wohlen ↓

Concordia Basel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FC Wohlen or draw
64%
FC Wohlen or Concordia Basel
78%
Draw or Concordia Basel
58%

Winning margin

FC Wohlen wins by 2+
23%
Concordia Basel wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Wohlen 1+ goals
84%
FC Wohlen 2+ goals
55%
FC Wohlen 3+ goals
28%
Concordia Basel 1+ goals
82%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
51%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Wohlen (draw refunded)
54%
Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wohlen at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Concordia Basel away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wohlen attack 1.95 + Concordia Basel defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Concordia Basel attack 1.93 + FC Wohlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Wohlen scores more
42%
level
22%
Concordia Basel scores more
36%

FC Wohlen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Wohlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Wohlen vs Concordia Basel

Concordia Basel beat FC Wohlen 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Niedermatten in Wohlen.