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FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport — Super League 2018

FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
5/17/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Winterthur38%
×Draw25%
Yverdon Sport37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Winterthur
1.48
Yverdon Sport
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Winterthur
1.35
Yverdon Sport
1.23

allows per match

FC Winterthur
1.71
Yverdon Sport
1.60

finishing

FC Winterthur-0.49scores less
Yverdon Sport-0.23scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

Yverdon Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw
63%
FC Winterthur or Yverdon Sport
75%
Draw or Yverdon Sport
62%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+
18%
Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals
77%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
43%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
19%
Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
77%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
43%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
50%
Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.35 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Yverdon Sport attack 1.23 + FC Winterthur defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Winterthur scores more
38%
level
25%
Yverdon Sport scores more
37%

FC Winterthur at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Winterthur 2–2 Yverdon Sport

FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport drew 2-2 in Super League on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Schützenwiese in Winterthur.