FC Winterthur 4–0 Rapperswil: Result & Stats

FC Winterthur

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rapperswil

1/16/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Fussballplatz Flüeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Winterthur63%

×Draw19%

Rapperswil18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchRapperswil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.15

FC Winterthur

2.31

Rapperswil

1.15

FC Winterthur creates 101% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

2.06

creates per match

0.67

1.63

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

FC Winterthur

2.06

Rapperswil

0.67

allows per match

FC Winterthur

1.63

Rapperswil

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Rapperswil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

Rapperswil →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

82%

FC Winterthur or Rapperswil

81%

Draw or Rapperswil

37%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

41%

Rapperswil wins by 2+

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

90%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

67%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

40%

Rapperswil 1+ goals

68%

Rapperswil 2+ goals

32%

Rapperswil 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

78%

Rapperswil (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Rapperswil away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 2.06 + Rapperswil defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.31

Rapperswil attack 0.67 + FC Winterthur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

63%

level

19%

Rapperswil scores more

18%

FC Winterthur at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff