FC Winterthur vs Neuchatel Xamax FC

FC Winterthur

Preview

18:15

Neuchatel Xamax FC

9/4/2026

Challenge League · Round 7

Big match

54%

FC Winterthur

model favours

54%22%24%

Neuchatel Xamax FC score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

62%

over 2.5 goals

61%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Winterthur54%

×Draw22%

Neuchatel Xamax FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchNeuchatel Xamax FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.25

FC Winterthur

1.98

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.25

FC Winterthur creates 58% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 34 away

1.95

creates per match

1.09

1.41

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FC Winterthur

1.95

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.09

allows per match

FC Winterthur

1.41

Neuchatel Xamax FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

Neuchatel Xamax FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

76%

FC Winterthur or Neuchatel Xamax FC

78%

Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC

46%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

32%

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

86%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

59%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

31%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals

71%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals

36%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

69%

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.95 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.09 + FC Winterthur defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

54%

level

22%

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more

24%

FC Winterthur at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

90% of Neuchatel Xamax FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both sides lean high-scoring (70% and 90% over 2.5)
FC Winterthur score first in only 20% of matches
Both teams score in 80% of FC Winterthur’s matches
Neuchatel Xamax FC have scored in 7 games running
70% of FC Winterthur’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Winterthur

DDDLL

FC

WWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff