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FC Winterthur vs Neuchatel Xamax FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
FT
2 – 1
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
3/27/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Winterthur52%
×Draw20%
Neuchatel Xamax FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Winterthur
2.25
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.63

FC Winterthur creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC Winterthur
1.95
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.73

allows per match

FC Winterthur
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
2.55

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par
Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

Neuchatel Xamax FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw
72%
FC Winterthur or Neuchatel Xamax FC
80%
Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC
48%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+
31%
Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals
89%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
65%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
39%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
80%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
48%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
65%
Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.95 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.25

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.73 + FC Winterthur defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Winterthur scores more
52%
level
20%
Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
28%

FC Winterthur at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

FC
Neuchatel
Patrick Rahmen
Manager: Patrick Rahmen
Anthony Braizat
Manager: Anthony Braizat

Friendlies Clubs: FC Winterthur 2–1 Neuchatel Xamax FC

FC Winterthur beat Neuchatel Xamax FC 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 27, 2026.