FC Winterthur 1–3 FC Zurich: Result & Stats

FC Winterthur

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

FC Zurich

8/30/2025

Super League · Round 5Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

FC Winterthur36%

×Draw24%

FC Zurich40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchFC Zurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.54

FC Winterthur

1.44

FC Zurich

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 147 away

1.21

creates per match

1.31

1.76

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC Winterthur

1.21

FC Zurich

1.31

allows per match

FC Winterthur

1.76

FC Zurich

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par

FC Zurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

FC Zurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

60%

FC Winterthur or FC Zurich

76%

Draw or FC Zurich

64%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

17%

FC Zurich wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

76%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

42%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

18%

FC Zurich 1+ goals

79%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

45%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

47%

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.76 · 75 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.67 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.21 + FC Zurich defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Zurich attack 1.31 + FC Winterthur defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

36%

level

24%

FC Zurich scores more

40%

FC Zurich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff