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FC Winterthur vs FC WIL 1900 — Challenge League 2026

FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
Preview
17:30
FC WIL 1900
FC WIL 1900
8/7/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 3
Big match
50%
FC Winterthur
model favours
50%23%27%

FC Winterthur score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Winterthur50%
×Draw23%
FC WIL 190027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Winterthur
1.82
FC WIL 1900
1.28

FC Winterthur creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 43 away

creates per match

FC Winterthur
1.95
FC WIL 1900
1.16

allows per match

FC Winterthur
1.41
FC WIL 1900
1.70

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par
FC WIL 1900+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

FC WIL 1900 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw
73%
FC Winterthur or FC WIL 1900
77%
Draw or FC WIL 1900
50%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+
28%
FC WIL 1900 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals
84%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
54%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
27%
FC WIL 1900 1+ goals
72%
FC WIL 1900 2+ goals
37%
FC WIL 1900 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
65%
FC WIL 1900 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

FC WIL 1900 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.95 + FC WIL 1900 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.82

FC WIL 1900 attack 1.16 + FC Winterthur defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Winterthur scores more
50%
level
23%
FC WIL 1900 scores more
27%

FC Winterthur at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of FC Winterthur’s matches
  • 70% of FC Winterthur’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Winterthur
DDDLL
1900
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Winterthur vs FC WIL 1900 — Match Preview

FC Winterthur face FC WIL 1900 on August 7, 2026 in this Challenge League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.