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FC Winterthur vs FC WIL 1900 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC WIL 1900
FC WIL 1900
Unknown 90+2', 41'
Unknown 67', 63'
10/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Winterthur54%
×Draw21%
FC WIL 190025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Winterthur
2.19
FC WIL 1900
1.46

FC Winterthur creates 50% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Winterthur
1.95
FC WIL 1900
1.38

allows per match

FC Winterthur
1.53
FC WIL 1900
2.44

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par
FC WIL 1900+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

FC WIL 1900 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw
75%
FC Winterthur or FC WIL 1900
79%
Draw or FC WIL 1900
46%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+
33%
FC WIL 1900 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals
89%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
64%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
37%
FC WIL 1900 1+ goals
77%
FC WIL 1900 2+ goals
43%
FC WIL 1900 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
68%
FC WIL 1900 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

FC WIL 1900 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.95 + FC WIL 1900 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.19

FC WIL 1900 attack 1.38 + FC Winterthur defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Winterthur scores more
54%
level
21%
FC WIL 1900 scores more
25%

FC Winterthur at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
63'
67'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Winterthur vs FC WIL 1900

FC Winterthur and FC WIL 1900 drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on October 10, 2024.

Goals: ? (41', 63', 67', 90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Schützenwiese in Winterthur.