FC Winterthur 3–1 FC Vaduz: Result & Stats

FC Winterthur

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Vaduz

R. Buess 73'

N. Burkart 68'

A. Durrer 62'

N. Helbock 74'

1/8/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Schützenwiese - Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Winterthur43%

×Draw21%

FC Vaduz36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchFC Vaduz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.80

FC Winterthur

1.98

FC Vaduz

1.80

FC Winterthur creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

2.07

1.53

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FC Winterthur

1.95

FC Vaduz

2.07

allows per match

FC Winterthur

1.53

FC Vaduz

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par

FC Vaduz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

FC Vaduz →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

64%

FC Winterthur or FC Vaduz

79%

Draw or FC Vaduz

57%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

24%

FC Vaduz wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

86%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

59%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

31%

FC Vaduz 1+ goals

83%

FC Vaduz 2+ goals

54%

FC Vaduz 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

54%

FC Vaduz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

FC Vaduz away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.95 + FC Vaduz defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

FC Vaduz attack 2.07 + FC Winterthur defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

43%

level

21%

FC Vaduz scores more

36%

FC Winterthur at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

68'

73'

74'

Manager: Uli Forte

FC Winterthur substitutes

UlrichArnoldLuthiSchattinDurrerZuffiBurkartGomisFreiBuess

Manager: Marc Schneider

FC Vaduz substitutes

SchaffranOehriHaslerToroWeberCrescentiLuchingerEberhardStoberTraberSchlegelHelbockHasler

Match Recap: FC Winterthur vs FC Vaduz

FC Winterthur beat FC Vaduz 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Durrer (62'), N. Burkart (68'), R. Buess (73'), N. Helbock (74').

The match was played at Schützenwiese - Platz 3 in Winterthur.

FC Winterthur vs FC Vaduz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FC Winterthur vs FC Vaduz